Joe Biden’s first trip abroad as president in 2021 was all about celebrating and reassuring democratic allies that the U.S. was back on the world stage.
Fast forward to his last overseas summits, and that promise is pretty much in ruins thanks to Donald Trump’s decisive comeback. This week, as global leaders gather in Lima, Peru, and Rio de Janeiro for what could have been a triumphant farewell for Biden after decades of foreign policy work, he’s more like an afterthought.
Back home, voters have turned against him and his party’s push to strengthen NATO, forge international alliances, and support Ukraine against Russia.
Other leaders are likely going to focus more on adapting to the shifting global landscape that Biden is leaving behind. They wanted to believe Trump was just a one-off incident; however, it seems they might realize that Biden was the real anomaly and that America has undergone a fundamental change.
Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO, believes we’re witnessing the end of Pax Americana—it’s really over.
Despite all of Biden’s efforts to breathe new life into alliances and promote a foreign policy based on shared democratic values, it looks like autocrats in Moscow and Beijing are set to outlast many of their Western counterparts.
Plus, even though he talks about building alliances, Biden’s economic policies lean heavily towards protectionism at their core.
His unpopularity seems to be pushing voters back toward Trump—a populist who flatters strongmen and has a mercantilist approach willing to deal with anyone directly.
Biden is expected to meet with China’s Xi Jinping during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima. But after spending 15 years building ties with Chinese leaders, he may not have much influence over where relations go under Trump—who looks ready to impose new tariffs on China aimed at cutting its huge trade surplus.
On his journey from Lima to Rio, Biden will stop by the Amazon rainforest—a chance for him to showcase U.S. investments in clean energy and highlight his leadership on climate change issues.
However, Trump’s return poses serious risks for Biden’s climate agenda and America’s commitment to international agreements like the Paris Climate Accord.
As world leaders come together for the G20 in Brazil this week, conversations about ongoing conflicts in places like the Middle East or between Russia and Ukraine will likely be shaped not by current U.S. policies but by how allies anticipate changes under potential future leadership.
For over a year, Biden hasn’t been able to convince Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to engage in cease-fire discussions, and the situation in Ukraine has turned into a deadlock, despite NATO countries pouring in over $200 billion in defense support since the conflict started.
However, Biden has managed to breathe new life into NATO and bolster cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region as part of efforts to counter China’s influence.
When asked if Biden’s approach to allies would change if Trump were reelected, national security adviser Jake Sullivan stated that the president would maintain his consistent message about the importance of allies for U.S. national security.
They make us stronger, he emphasized. As Biden heads to an Asia-Pacific summit in Peru, Sullivan noted that alliances in that region are at an all-time high—something he plans to pass on to Trump.
But while keeping NATO united after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 is crucial, it hasn’t translated into a clear military advantage on the ground.
This means that resolving this proxy war between Russia and the West will largely fall on Trump’s shoulders, who has openly shown little regard for NATO or European security while trying to foster a close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Ian Bremmer from Eurasia Group pointed out that America no longer shares many of the values that once formed the foundation of its alliances.
While Biden views things through a Cold War lens—seeing democracies against autocracies—Trump does not share this perspective. It’s becoming evident that the U.S. struggles with commitment when it comes to supporting its allies and maintaining a global order.
And it’s not just America facing this challenge; many like-minded nations are also witnessing their support wane amid post-pandemic economic and security issues.
Leaders close to Biden, such as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, might be counting down their remaining time in office by months now.
Meanwhile, those leaders who are less attached—or even dismissive—of the values-based order Biden aims to restore may find themselves better positioned for success in this new era defined by Trump’s straightforward transactional approach.
Giorgia Meloni, the leader of a party with ties to Italy’s fascist past, has managed to collaborate effectively with Biden and has generally aligned with the G7 on supporting Ukraine.
Biden famously declared that democratic allies would back Ukraine with whatever it takes for as long as it takes. However, that commitment faced challenges, as Congress took months to finalize a $60 billion defense aid package earlier this year, and some allies experienced dwindling political support.
With Trump and other authoritarian figures gaining influence, there are concerns that Meloni might change her approach to align more closely with those wanting to negotiate an end to the conflict.
This shift might also resonate with leaders from Hungary, India, Saudi Arabia, and Argentina who could be more inclined to work with a Trump-led White House.
The previous global order is fading away; according to Daalder, we need a new one. There’s a noticeable shift happening in European politics and in the U.S., moving towards a kind of alignment characterized by rising illiberalism and far-right tendencies—think Meloni in Italy or Viktor Orbán in Hungary along with Poland’s Law and Justice Party gaining strength from recent events.
During Trump’s first term, his America First policy often clashed with established international alliances like NATO or groups like the G7 and G20 that focus on multilateral economic cooperation.
While Biden talks about valuing alliances too, he sometimes acts unilaterally—like when he pulled U.S. troops out of Afghanistan or upset France over the AUKUS submarine deal involving Britain and Australia.
His domestic policies have also affected Europe’s electric vehicle industry and semiconductor markets at a time when coordinated economic collaboration is crucial due to ongoing pandemic-related supply chain issues.
As Trump potentially gears up for another run at leadership, conversations at events like Rio are likely going to revolve around anticipating tariffs he might impose.
Unlike 2016 when his return was uncertain, preparations this time are happening much quicker—and these leaders seem better equipped than before.
Josh Lipsky from the Atlantic Council notes they have learned from past experiences; they know what steps they need to take regarding trade resilience and bilateral negotiations while gearing up their economies for what’s ahead.
So expect less panic and confusion compared to eight years ago!
Biden isn’t planning to give a big foreign policy speech during this trip, which is actually his last major gathering with other global leaders.
However, two officials from his administration have mentioned that he might deliver a significant address on foreign policy before he wraps up his time in office in January.
It’s interesting to note that even though Democrats lost their chance to stay in the White House largely because people were upset about rising prices, Biden’s presidency has still positioned the U.S. as the strongest economy worldwide.
The chatter about China surpassing us has quieted down. This suggests that despite all the political shifts happening every four years in Washington, countries around the world will keep seeking ways to connect with the U.S., our unique superpower status being crucial for them beyond any single administration, as Lipsky pointed out. That’s definitely how they’re looking at things moving forward!